What are the possible scenarios for Russian intervention in Ukraine? And what will be the geopolitical and economic repercussions of this crisis-turned-conflict?
H-hour has struck. In a televised address on Wednesday night, Vladimir Putin announced that Russian military intervention was necessary to protect the inhabitants of Donbass in eastern Ukraine. He justified this by saying that the Americans and Europeans had ignored his desire to prevent the country from joining NATO. He wants security guarantees. Since the Kremlin positioned tens of thousands of soldiers on the Ukrainian border, opening the ball of one-upmanship, the whole world had been holding its breath. Despite ongoing negotiations, Moscow's recognition of the independence of Ukraine's two breakaway "republics" was a kind of first spark. The big fire soon followed. What are the possible scenarios for this Russian intervention in Ukraine? And what will be the geopolitical and economic repercussions of this crisis turned conflict?
- Blitzkrieg or long-term war?
Although the Russian President stated that his aim was not to occupy Ukraine, explosions were heard in several parts of Ukraine, including Kiev. Mykhailo Federov, Ukraine's Minister for Digital Transformation, said that cyber attacks were targeting official websites. The websites of the Parliament and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are offline, and those of the Ministries of Defence and the Interior are experiencing interruptions.
The Russian intervention no longer concerns just the Donbass, but the whole of Ukraine. There is a flagrant imbalance between the armies of the two countries. What's more, Ukraine has no air defence. Russian strikes will wipe out the reinforcement of Ukrainian units on the ground. The other major problem for the Ukrainian army is the extreme length of the front to be held. A national state of emergency has been declared. Reservists aged between 18 and 60 can therefore be mobilised. Putin's plan appears to be a lightning takeover of the capital, Kiev, to overthrow the authorities and install a pro-Russian government. The intensity of the fighting could make this intervention last a long time. Ukrainian national sentiment will play a decisive role. It's a question of national survival.
- Article 4 of the NATO Charter
Poland, Romania and the three Baltic states are invoking Article 4 of the NATO Charter. For a response? Article 4 provides for members to consult each other "whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened", but does not include a military dimension, unlike Article 5, which stipulates that an attack against one of the members of the organisation is "considered as an attack against all Parties". This paves the way for "the use of armed force". NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said today, Thursday, that "NATO has no troops in Ukraine and no plans or intentions to deploy troops there".
- A cautious China
China, on the other hand, is acting cautiously, focused solely on its own interests in a complex geopolitical environment, despite its good relations with Russia. Wen-Ti Sung, a specialist in Chinese foreign policy at the Australian National University, believes that China would not mind instability in Eastern Europe, as it could ease American pressure on Beijing. He believes that "this gives China much more flexibility and room to manoeuvre".
In geopolitical terms, Russia will be disconnected from the European Union for many years to come. Economic and trade relations will be affected. Moscow will turn even more towards Asia. From a strategic point of view, Putin is proving the defenders of NATO right by demonstrating its necessity. Particularly the countries of Eastern Europe. Finally, in terms of international governance, we are heading straight for "anarchic multipolarity", a far cry from the US/China bipolarity so often predicted.
- Penalties
The President of the United States, for his part, has made it clear that there will be no American troops on Ukrainian territory. He does, however, have a range of economic sanctions at his disposal. Their scope remains to be seen.
Joe Biden, for example, authorised sanctions against the company that built the Russia-Germany Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline (NS2AG, whose parent company is Gazprom) and against the company's CEO Matthias Warnig (who is German). For his part, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the suspension of authorisation for the 1230km Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline linking Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea. The idea was to bypass Ukraine and increase Russian gas deliveries to the western part of Europe. Nord Stream 2 is not yet in service, unlike Nord Stream 1. For the moment, the impact on Russia is limited, but an extension of the sanctions would have medium-term economic consequences. The American President has also decided to cut Russia off from Western funding. A decision supported by the Europeans. They have also decided to impose a travel ban and freeze the assets in the EU of 23 "leading figures", three banks, one company and 351 members of the Duma. The consequences and sanctions imposed on Russia could, at the same time, affect energy supplies in Europe, shake up world financial markets and threaten the strategic balance that has prevailed on the Old Continent since 1945.
- The consequences
As a result, Moscow can no longer raise money in the United States and Europe, and can no longer trade its debt on Western markets. The Moscow Stock Exchange opened down nearly 14 %, while the rouble plummeted 9 % against the dollar this morning. If the rouble is affected, the cost of imported goods will rise. The Russian political and business elite with assets in London and Geneva will also be affected.
Russia is a major world producer of oil and gas. The price of a barrel of oil is rising sharply as a result of the tensions. It is selling at 102 dollars this morning. It could reach 125 dollars a barrel. As far as gas is concerned, there is a risk that Russia, which supplies 40% of the gas consumed in Europe, will see the pipeline that crosses Ukraine cut or damaged.
The price of aluminium hit an all-time high this morning, at $3,382.50 a tonne. According to Daniel Briesemann, an analyst specialising in commodities, "the rise in aluminium prices was to be expected once Russia attacked Ukraine. Market players clearly fear that Russia's aluminium supplies will be affected in the event of severe Western sanctions and - probably - retaliatory measures by Russia. If the situation escalates further, we believe that prices could rise further". Gold prices are also on the rise. Finally, wheat. Russia and Ukraine are the world's two leading producers. A rise in prices is to be feared.
One of the other consequences is the migration issue. A few weeks ago, the American intelligence services estimated that a military operation in Ukraine would result in an influx of between 1 and 5 million refugees. The Norwegian Refugee Council is forecasting a movement of 2 million people. This would be the largest displacement of people in Europe since the end of the Second World War in 1945.
AA /MCP, via mediacongo.net
